Global macro overview for 21/04/2017:
The US Unemployment Claims data was slightly above consensus forecasts, but the overall job market in the US remains stable. The Initial Jobless Claims increased to 244,000 in the week ending April 15th from 234,000 previously, while the consensus was at the level of 242,000. The four-week moving average declined to 243,000 from 247,250 previously and it was the 111th week when the claims were below a benchmark level of 300,000. In conclusion, the Unemployment Claims data still indicates a very low level of layoffs and underlying confidence in the labor market. Importantly, the next nonfarm payrolls are expected to rebound strongly from the lower than expected increase in March.
Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the bounce from the level of 99.37, the bulls are trying to test the next technical resistance at the level of 100.00. The oversold market conditions and the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator support the bullish bias. Nevertheless, there is no real bounce without the 100.00 level violation. If this level is breached, then the level of 99.37 might be labeled as a lower low.
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